000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE OCT 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A 1006 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 10N96W CONTINUES TO BECOME 
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE BANDING 
FOCUSING WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND OCCURRING 
FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE SW QUADRANT FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 
101W. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH WINDS 
ALOFT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. SEAS TO 8 OR 9 FT 
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRES OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND PRE-
EXISTING LONG PERIOD SWELL. THERE REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 10N86W TO 1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
10N97W TO 08N105W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N116W TO 08N118W TO 
08N121W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 08N121W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...AND 
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 129W AND 134W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                
A 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 
32N133W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 20N109W. WEAK LOW- 
LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN THE ITCZ 
REGION FROM 07N TO 13N W OF 130W LARGELY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N137W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
COVERS A LARGE AREA FROM 07N TO 17N W OF 130W DUE TO MAXIMUM 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING. GIVEN THE OVERALL 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER PRESSURE 
REGIME ACROSS THE ITCZ AREA W OF 130W...TRADES REMAIN MODERATE 
TO FRESH...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FEW LOCALLY AREAS OF STRONG. 
RECENT ASCAT DATA CONFIRMS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TRADES WITH 
ALTIMETER DATA SHOWING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 10 FT LARGELY 
INFLUENCED BY NW SWELL.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT FOR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY 
FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SW OF THE AREA DEVELOPS FURTHER AND HIGH 
PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

$$ 
HUFFMAN