000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280243
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE OCT 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
1007 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 10N96W CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER 
ORGANIZED. CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER WAS BECOMING MORE 
ORGANIZED ALTHOUGH HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO WEAKEN...AS IS 
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS 
FAIRLY MOIST WITH WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT. SEAS TO 8 OR 9 FT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE LOW PRES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO LOCAL FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS AND PRE-EXISTING LONG PERIOD SWELL. THERE REMAINS 
A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. 
                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
10N96W 1007 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N115W 1011 MB. ITCZ AXIS IS 
ANALYZED FROM 09N115W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 09N96W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A 1022 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 
33N132W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED 
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. AN 
1824 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE. THE STRONGER 
TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE ALLOWING COMBINED 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 130W...AS CORROBORATED BY 
AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS. 

ANOTHER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM AROUND 04 UTC INDICATED FRESH 
TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NORTE...FUNNELING BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE 
TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST. THESE WINDS HAVE LIKELY DIMINISHED AS 
THE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADES PERSIST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. ALTIMETER DATA AND 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT N OF 15N W 
OF 110W...LIKELY IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. 

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT FOR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED STARTING FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SW OF THE 
AREA DEVELOPS FURTHER AND HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
FOR THE GRIDDED FORECAST...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS 
ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION WERE USED FOR THE WINDS AND 
THE GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH MODEL ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION 
WERE USED FOR THE WAVES.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN