000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON OCT 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED 
AROUND A 1008 MB AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 09N96W. DRY AIR 
ENTRAINING INTO THE LOW PRES FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS 
STOPPED...AND UPPER AIR PATTERNS HAVE BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE 
THAT THE LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. THE LOW HAS BEEN ALMOST QUASI-STATIONARY AND STEERING 
CURRENT REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO 
THE W OR NW THROUGH MID WEEK. SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA ALONG 
WITH REPORTS FROM TOGA BUOY 43301 SITUATED ABOUT 120 NM SE OF 
THE CENTER INDICATE WINDS ARE MOSTLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 KT. 
SEAS ARE UP TO 9 FT IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW...A 
COMBINATION OF THE PERSISTENT FRESH BREEZES AND LINGERING SW 
SWELL.
                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IN ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
09N96W 1008 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N114W 1011 MB. THE ITCZ AXIS 
IS ANALYZED FROM 09N114W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM NW 
QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 09N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 112W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 
33N132W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED 
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. AN 
1824 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE. THE STRONGER 
TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE ALLOWING COMBINED 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 130W...AS CORROBORATED BY 
AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS. 

ANOTHER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM AROUND 04 UTC INDICATED FRESH 
TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NORTE...FUNNELING BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE 
TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST. THESE WINDS HAVE LIKELY DIMINISHED AS 
THE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADES PERSIST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. ALTIMETER DATA AND 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT N OF 15N W 
OF 110W...LIKELY IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. 
 
FOR THE GRIDDED FORECAST...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS 
ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION WERE USED FOR THE WINDS AND 
THE GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH MODEL ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION 
WERE USED FOR THE WAVES.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN/LANDSEA