000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON OCT 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY FROM 06N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 101W IS FOCUSED AROUND A 1009 MB LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 10N96W AND CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER ORGANIZATION 
THIS MORNING. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS MAXIMIZED ON THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N85W AND 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE MEXICO NEAR 26N99W 
SW TO A BASE NEAR 15N108W. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT 
AGREEMENT SHOWING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS 
AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE W OR W-NW. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA 
INDICATES SEAS ARE ALREADY IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE NEAR THE 
LOW...A COMBINATION OF LOCAL WINDS...NE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC REGION...AND LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL.
                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 07N77W TO 10N92W TO 1009 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 10N96W TO 07N104W TO 09N111W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
08N113W TO 08N117W TO 08N122W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 08N122W TO 
13N133W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 
13N BETWEEN 92W AND 101W...FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 105W AND 
108W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 
35N134W TO 16N115W. A QUASI-STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW PRES REMAINS 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N113W. LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS 
SUPPORTING A LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
15N113W TO 12N117W. RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATED  
MODERATE TO FRESH...LOCALLY STRONG...TRADE WINDS FROM 12N TO 22N 
W OF 115W...WITH MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES N OF 22N. A 
SERIES OF ALTIMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONFIRMED 
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY N OF 15N AND W 
OF 115W...DUE TO NW SWELL.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS ARE MAINTAINING 
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
REGION PER RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA STRETCHING TO NEAR 
13N97W. THE OVERALL TREND HOWEVER IS FOR THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO 
DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS DIRECTLY 
OVER THE NARROW SWATH OF PEAK WINDS SHOWED SEAS TO 10 FT...THAT 
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDDAY MON. 
 
$$
HUFFMAN