000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON OCT 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING INCREASE AND BECOME A 
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR DEVELOPING 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
10N96W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE TO THE 
EAST OVER HONDURAS AND A SHARP UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST REACHING 
FROM N CENTRAL MEXICO TO 13N110W. IN ADDITION...GALE FORCE GAP 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAD BEEN DELIVERING DRY 
AIR INTO THE LOW PRES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HAS 
DECREASED...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT 
IS FUELING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN 
IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE W OR NW. SEAS ARE ALREADY 
TO AT LEAST 9 FT NEAR THE LOW...A COMBINATION OF LOCAL 
WINDS...NE SWELL FROM TEHUANTEPEC...AND LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL.
                    
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N79W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 09N95W 1009 MB TO 07N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N114W 1010 MB 
TO 10N125W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 09N125W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 106W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 
116W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 
34N135W TO 16N110W. QUASI-STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW PRES REMAINS 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N114W. LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS 
SUPPORTING A LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
15N110W TO 13N115W. EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATED  
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 110W...WITH 
MOSTLY GENTLE BREEZES N OF 22N. A SERIES OF ALTIMETER PASSES 
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONFIRMED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT 
ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY N OF 15N AND W OF 120W...DUE TO NW SWELL.

ANOTHER WEAK STATIONARY LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 
14N130W. CONVERGENCE OF FRESH BREEZES BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE 
RIDGE ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW 
IS ENHANCING MODEST CONVECTION N OF THE LOW NEAR 17N130W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL KEEP 
STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BRIEFLY 
TONIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH 
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND 
SHIFTS EAST. LINGERING SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE 
THROUGH MIDDAY. 
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN