000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN OCT 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 09.5N95W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT REMAINS RELATIVELY 
STATIONARY S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. DRY AIR FROM THE GAP 
WIND EVENT IN TEHUANTEPEC HAS LIMITED CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW. 
AS THAT EVENT COMES TO A CLOSE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE 
FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN AND POSSIBLY BECOME A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
                                       
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 09.5N95W 1009 MB TO 07N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N113W 1011 
MB TO 09N25W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 09N125W TO 10N135W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW PRES 
NEAR 09.5N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
102W AND 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED OVER 
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA 
HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED EAST...ALLOWING THE GAP WINDS TO 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG TONIGHT 
HOWEVER WITH DRAINAGE EFFECTS...BUT DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 
MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS TO INCLUDE DOWNSTREAM NE SWELL GENERATED BY 
THE GALE EVENT WILL LIKEWISE SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY. 

A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N134W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO 20N110W. MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY FRESH TRADEWINDS CAN BE FOUND OVER WATERS W OF THE RIDGE 
AND N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. LOOK FOR THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES 
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORCED 
S BY A COLD FRONT WELL N OF THE AREA. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 
RIDGE...NW TO N WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO A MODERATE BREEZE 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LINGERING TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL 
BRIEFLY REACH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE W 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE DISSIPATED 
FRONT HAS LEFT LINGERING NW SWELL WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT ACROSS THE 
NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT BEGIN TO SUBSIDE 
SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUE. 
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN