000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261528 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN OCT 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 09N95W TO DRIVE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MORNING DRAINAGE EFFECTS ARE DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. GALE CONDITIONS WERE FORECAST TO END AFTER 1200 UTC TODAY. THE HIGH PRES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY MON...ALLOWING GAP WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY LATE MON MORNING. SEAS TO 14 FT ARE FOUND IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM WIND WITH SEAS TO 12 FT IN SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL REACHING DOWNSTREAM OVER 300 NM TO THE S- SW WHERE THEY ARE INCREASINGLY MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL. WAVES GENERATED PRIMARILY FROM THE SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY MON EVENING. THE 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 09N95W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. DRY AIR FROM THE GAP WIND EVENT IN TEHUANTEPEC HAS LIMITED CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW. AS THAT EVENT COMES TO A CLOSE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN AND POSSIBLY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N95W 1009 MB TO 07N104W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N113W 1011 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N124W 1011 MB TO 10N130W. THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 10N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 09N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 92W N OF 05N TO MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S QUADRANT AND 90 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 09N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND NW QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N124W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO 14N110W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADEWINDS CAN BE FOUND OVER WATERS W OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. LOOK FOR THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORCED S BY A COLD FRONT WELL N OF THE AREA. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...NW TO N WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO A MODERATE BREEZE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LINGERING TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE DISSIPATED FRONT HAS LEFT LINGERING NW SWELL WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUE. AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE PACIFIC NW UNITED STATES THROUGH 30N133W TO BEYOND 20N140W. WHILE THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH IS MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA...THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER NW WATERS. A CUT OFF LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THERE BY TUE MORNING. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER JET...AND THEY SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. $$ SCHAUER