000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241528
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI OCT 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1345 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OVER 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DRIVING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
BELIEVED TO BE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND A GALE 
WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUN MORNING AT THE END OF THE 
PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. THE WINDSAT PASS FROM 2358 UTC THU 
SHOWED A CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE WIND AFTER PASSING S OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH A BROAD CENTER NEAR 13N93W. AS THE 
WIND INTENSIFIES...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 11N89W TO 
09N100W TO 12N119W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 82W 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 06N E 
OF 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 92W AND 100W AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 101W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W 
AND 133W AS WELL AS W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A RELATIVELY WEAK 1016 MB SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED 
NEAR 27N130W AND EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1015 MB 
HIGH CENTER NEAR 12N114W TO 15N112W. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH 
TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. A COLD 
FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NW WATERS FROM 30N136W TO 29N140W WITH 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN 
180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS...WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NW SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USHERED SOUTHEASTWARD...HOWEVER. SEAS TO 11 
FT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND NEAR THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA 
NEAR 30N140W AND WILL BUILD TO 13 FT OVER THE WEEKEND. 

A LINGERING AREA OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS MIXED WITH CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...BRINGING SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE AREA S OF 11N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 128W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY THROUGH SAT...WITH 
THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS SHIFTING EAST COVERING THE WATERS S OF 07N 
BETWEEN 91W AND 110W BEFORE MERGING WITH THE PLUME OF GAP WIND 
SWELL OCCURRING S IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN. 

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF PANAMA. THIS 
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. BROAD UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE LIES OVER THIS AREA BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
NEAR JAMAICA AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 
THE GALAPAGOS AND THE MAINLAND. THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE 
HERE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50 
MILLIMETERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION 
TO CONTINUE HERE OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
SCHAUER