000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE OCT 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.                       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N87W 
1007 MB NW TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N94W 1006 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 
16N102W 1006 MB TO 10N112W TO 10N129W TO 09N130W. ITCZ FROM 
09N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-92W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 
135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STRETCHING 
FROM THE SW U.S. TO 28N122W TO NEAR 20N129W. TO ITS E...MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS N OF 19N AND EASTWARD TO CENTRAL MEXICO.  
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR 
IS PRESENT TO THE N OF 13N E OF 120W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGING IS NEAR 12N119W. A SMALL 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST W OF THE FAR WESTERN 
PART OF THE AREA NEAR 13N143W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E OF 
THE AREA ON WED. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE FAR 
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DECREASED IN 
COVERAGE. CONVECTION NOTED OVER THIS PORTION OF THE AREA IS 
RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...AND WITH THE 
1006 MB LOW JUST OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N94W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
A LINE FROM 13N92W TO 16N95W. THIS ACTIVITY IS UNDER  AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO LINGER THERE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE AND MOISTURE 
CONVERGENCE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THIS 
MOISTURE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU AS THE LOW NEAR 16N94W 
MOVES LITTLE.

WITH RESPECT TO MARINE INTERESTS...THE MAIN STORY IS NW SWELLS 
THAT HAVE PROPAGATED INTO THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N117W TO 
16N128W TO 12N140W PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THE HIGHEST OF 
THESE SEAS IS N OF 24N E OF 134W. BY 48 HOURS...THE NW SWELL 
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO HAVE BEEN BECOME DIFFUSED WITH SEAS OF 8 
FT IS CONFINED TO N OF 04N BETWEEN 109W-130W. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE 
INDICATES THAT THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
SOUTHEASTWARD TO S OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF ABOUT 110W THROUGH 
LATE TONIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE