000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON OCT 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.                       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N87W 
1009 MB NW TO 14N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N101W 1007 MB TO 12N112W 
TO 10N126W TO 09N136W. ITCZ FROM 10N126W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 126W-132W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-
95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 81W-
88W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 26N W 
OF 125W WITH ITS MEAN AXIS ROUGHLY FROM 32N132W TO 22N140W. TO 
ITS E...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS N OF 20N AND EASTWARD TO 
FAR WESTERN MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR LEFT BEHIND FROM A RECENTLY 
DEPARTED UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT TO THE N OF 19N BETWEEN 118W 
AND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...AND ALSO N OF 14N E OF 118W. BROAD 
UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE TROPICAL REGION OF THE AREA FROM 04N 
TO 20N WITH AN ASSOCIATED SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 12N121W. A 
SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST W OF THE FAR 
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 10N144W. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE 
PRESENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THE PAST FEW 
DAYS HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. THE RELATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
AS OBSERVED IN THE COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) 
ANIMATION HAS DECREASED SOME...HOWEVER SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 79W-94W...AND ALSO FROM 
09N N TO ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W-106W. TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GUIDANCE 
FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER 
THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISH ON WED. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED 
NEAR 16N102W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT STATIOANRY THROUGH 
TUE...THEN SHIFT SOME TO THE E OR ESE WED. SW 20 KT OR LESS 
MONSOON FLOW TO THE SW OF THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO  
20-25 KT BY EARLY ON TUE...AND EXPAND SOME TO THE E THEREAFTER 
WITH SEAS OF 8 OR 9 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 
20 KT OR LESS ON WED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
 
WITH RESPECT TO MARINE INTERESTS...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DISSIPATING ALONG A 
POSITION FROM 32N127W SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 20N140W. NW OF THE 
FRONT WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 9-13 FT IN NW 
SWELL...EXCEPT FOR MUCH LARGE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS OF 12-16 FT 
NW OF A LINE FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W. BY EARLY TUE...SEAS OF    
8-12 FT ARE FORECAST TO THE NW OF LINE FROM 32N115W TO 16N128W 
TO  12N140W...WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 10-14 FT N OF 21N BETWEEN 122W-
135W. BY EARLY WED...SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE DIFFUSING 
WITH SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE NW OF A LINE FROM 22N111W TO 
07N140W. THE HIGHEST OF THESE SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE 
FAR NE PART AT THAT TIME. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE 
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO S OF THE 
EQUATOR AND W OF ABOUT 110W THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE