000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200236
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.                       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N88W 1008 
MB TO 14N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N99W 1007 MB TO 11N111W TO 
11N120W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N120W TO 11N131W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 126W AND 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 138W N OF 26N SUPPORTS A WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 
30N133W TO 25N140W. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT 
WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON WITH SEAS REACHING 15-16 FT 
IN FAR NW PART TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT 
FOR THE DYING FRONT WILL LIFT NE TONIGHT. FRONT WILL TRANSITION 
TO A FRONTAL TROUGH BY MON AFTERNOON AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY 
TUE MORNING. AREA OF HIGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MON AND 
TUE AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT 
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND MON...ALLOWING COMBINED 
SEAS TO APPROACH 8 FT BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS 
W OF 115W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND 
W OF 113W. A RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH 
MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED S OF THE 
RIDGE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL