000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192125 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N88W 1010 MB TO 14N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N99W 1009 MB TO 11N111W TO 11N129W TO 08N137W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N137W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N AND 30 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 140W N OF 27N SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N134W TO 27N140W. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON WITH SEAS REACHING 15-16 FT IN FAR NW PART TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT WILL LIFT NE TONIGHT AND FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN W OF 125W THROUGH MON...BECOMING A FRONTAL TROUGH MON AFTERNOON AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY TUE MORNING. THE AREA OF HIGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MON AND TUE AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE FRONT WEAKENS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND MON...ALLOWING COMBINED SEAS TO APPROACH 8 FT BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS W OF 115W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W. A RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. $$ MUNDELL