000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N87W 1010 MB NW TO 14N93W WHERE IT ENDS. IT RESUMES AT 16N101W TO 11N113W TO 10N130W TO 08N135W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 12N BETWEEN 96W-103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 123W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 78W-80W...N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-91W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 121W-123W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 131W-138W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 26N W OF 120W WITH ITS MEAN AXIS ROUGHLY FROM 32N138W TO 27N140W. TO ITS E...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-120W WITH AXIS ALONG 121W. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE SW U.S. AND ACROSS NW MEXICO. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT N OF 18N AND TO THE E OF 127W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE TROPICAL REGION OF THE AREA E OF 138W FROM 04N TO 20N. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST OF THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 12N141W...AND IS MOVING WNW. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 93W-105W AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD MOSTLY OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY LIES UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING...AND IN ADDITION THE SOUTHERN TIER OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FURTHER AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION. THE ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) ANIMATION. THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TOTAL WATER GUIDANCE AND ALSO ITS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GUIDANCE TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 16N100W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT STATIOANRY THROUGH MON...THEN SHIFT SOME TO THE E OR ESE. SW 20 KT OR LESS MONSOON FLOW TO THE SW OF THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY EARLY ON MON...AND EXPAND NORTHWARD THEREAFTER WITH SEAS OF 8 OR 9 FT. THESE WINDS MAY POSSIBLY BE HIGHER AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE DESCRIBED CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT 12 UTC TO EXTEND FROM 32N135W SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 29N140W. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH FROM NEAR 32N127W SW TO 26N131W AND DISSIPATING AS A FRONTAL TROUGH TO 23N140W. THE NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 11-16 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W AND 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT. BY EARLY TUE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO HAVE DISSIPATED...HOWEVER LARGE SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT ARE FORECAST NW OF A LINE FROM 32N114W TO 20N125W TO 13N140W UNDER 20 KT OR LESS WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 11-14 FT IN NW SWELL N OF AN AREA FROM N OF 22N AND BETWEEN 121W-135W. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE TO S OF THE EQUATOR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. $$ AGUIRRE