000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 8N90W...RESUMES FROM 15N103W TO 
11N125W TO 11N127W TO 8N137W. ITCZ FROM 8N137W TO 8N140W. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 12N 
BETWEEN 98W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 120W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N133W TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 12N141W. UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N124W TO 19N120W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 11N W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N109W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SW 
OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM WHAT WAS ONCE TRUDY FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 100W-103W. 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA AND 
GUERRERO STATES TONIGHT AND PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND 
THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND 
FROM 30N136W TO 28N140W. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 8-11 FT IN 
NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND 
BUILD TO 9 TO 16 FT ON MON.

$$
DGS