000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190237 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N87W TO 15N96W...THEN RESUMES FROM 15N102W TO 11N115W TO 11N127W TO 08N135W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF 15N95.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 113W. ...DISCUSSION... TRUDY HAS DISSIPATED OVER LAND INTO A REMNANT LOW CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 98.2W 1006 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 18. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO STATES TONIGHT AND PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUN AND EXTEND FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT IN NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE FRONT WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SW WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS SUN NIGHT AND MON BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...ALLOWING COMBINED SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS W OF 115W... PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 113W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO NW WATERS. A WEAK NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. $$ MUNDELL