000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182254
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N85W TO 15N94W...RESUMES 
SW OF T.D. TRUDY FROM 15N102W TO 10N115W TO 12N128W TO 09N135W. 
ITCZ FROM 09N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...AND WITHIN 30 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY NEAR 17.2N 98.5W 1006 MB AT 2100 UTC 
OCT 18 MOVING NNE OR 025 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 
KT GUSTS 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION MOVING 
FURTHER INLAND AND LOSING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W. 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND 
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES.  
                                                
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N124W TO 26N131W. NW 
OF THE FRONT SEAS ARE 7-8 FT IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED 
TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUN 
AND EXTEND FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL 
RAPIPDILY BUILD TO 15-16 FT IN NW SWELL IN FAR NW PORTION BEHIND 
THE FRONT THROUGH SUN EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT 
AND MON AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE AND THE 
FRONT WEAKENS.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS 
W OF 115W... PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N 
AND W OF 113W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE COLD FRONT 
SWEEPS INTO NW WATERS. A WEAK NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST SE OF 
THE FRONT THROUGH MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS 
EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. 

$$
MUNDELL