000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR 
17.2N 98.8W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM 
ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES 
SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE IS BECOMING DISRUPTED OVER THE TERRAIN 
OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES INLAND MEXICO. THE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 96W AND 
103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N105W TO 
14N103W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N103W. 
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24 
HOURS NEAR 17.5N 98.8W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 
KT. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR 
ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO 
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. 
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL 
SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE  
REMNANT LOW MEANDER JUST INLAND OF THE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N88W NW TO 
15N92W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN 
RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 11N118W TO 11N20W TO 09N135W...WHERE IT 
ENDS. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM 
OF LINE FROM 05N83W TO 05N87W TO 05N92W....WITHIN 120 NM OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 109W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF 
ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 26N132W EARLY 
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8 
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE 
BY THIS EVENING. A NEW COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND 
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NW 
20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN...AND IS 
FORECAST TO DO SO AS IT APPROACHES 30N127W TO 26N132W TO 
24N140W. NW OF THIS FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR 
LESS WITH SEAS QUICKLY RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9-16 FT IN NW SWELL.
 

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR 
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 
110W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 
113W. THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE 
AFOREMENTIONED NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. 
HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE 
IS EXPECTED IN MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE 
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. 

$$
AGUIRRE