000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 98.8W 999 MB AT 0900 
UTC OCT 18...OR ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO... 
MOVING E OR 080 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 
TO 60 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES 
OF THE CENTER...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS N OF 13.5N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. THE ACAPULCO RADAR 
CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF TRUDY OVERNIGHT AS IT 
HAS MOVED SLOWLY NE TO E AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST. 
RECENT RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER WAS MOVING VERY 
SLOWLY ASHORE ABOUT 60 NM E-SE OF THE ACAPULCO AIRPORT. TRUDY IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FARTHER INLAND WHICH SHOULD END 
THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. HOWEVER....VERY HEAVY TO 
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY THROUGH 
THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND THE 
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL 
AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO MICHOACAN 
THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE REMNANTS MEANDER ABOUT JUST INLAND OF THE 
COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N73W TO 07N86W TO 16N94W... 
WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM TROPICAL STORM TRUDY...THEN RESUMES 
FROM 14N103.5W TO 09N129W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N133W 1012 
MB...WHERE IT TERMINATES. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08.5N136W TO BEYOND 
07.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 04N E OF 
89W...EXCEPT NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM SW OF 
COAST BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 116W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 90 NM SW QUADRANTS 
OF LOW PRES NEAR 08N133W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N127W TO 26.5N140W EARLY 
THIS MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8 
TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 30N124W TO 26N130W TO 25N140W THIS EVENING WITH 
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT JUST NW OF IT. A SURGE OF LARGE LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUN MORNING NW 
OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD 
TO 15-16 FT BEHIND FRONT IN FAR NW PORTION ON SUN.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR 
25N122W...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF 
110W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 
113W. THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE 
WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MARINE 
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. 

$$
STRIPLING