000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180259
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY NEAR 16.0N 99.0W 1004 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 18 
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 
45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 14.5N 
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER IN 
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD S OF MEXICO BEFORE 
MAKING LANDFALL SAT AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY 
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO INCLUDING STATES FROM 
OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN 
PRODUCING AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 14N90W TO TROPICAL STORM 
TRUDY TO 11N110W TO 11N121W TO 09N131W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
09N131W TO 08N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 26N140W. NW OF 
THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW 
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N124W 
TO 26N130W TO 25N140W SAT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. A SURGE OF 
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUN 
MORNING NW OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. SEAS WILL 
RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT BEHIND FRONT IN FAR NW PORTION SUN.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR 
25N123W...EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...PRODUCING 
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N.

$$ 
MUNDELL