000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E NEAR 15.4N 99.0W 1005 MB AT 2100 
UTC OCT 17 MOVING N OR 355 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD S OF MEXICO BEFORE 
MAKING LANDFALL SAT AFTERNOON. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW 
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SW MEXICO INCLUDING STATES FROM 
OAXACA TO MICHOACAN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY 
RAIN INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N78W TO 14N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N100W 
1007 MB TO 9N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 78W-81W AND WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 119W-124W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N131W TO 27N140W. NW OF 
THE FRONT WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW 
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N125W 
TO 27N130W TO 26N140W SAT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW PORTION BEHIND 
TROUGH. A SURGE OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO 
THE FORECAST AREA SUN MORNING NW OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N134W TO 
26N140W. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT IN NW PORTION SUN.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR 
25N123W...EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...PRODUCING 
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N.

$$ 
MUNDELL