000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED S OF THE COAST OF MEXICO 
CENTERED NEAR 15N99W IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS N OF 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 106W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW DRIFTS N. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE 
OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW 
WILL LIKELY SW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PERIODS OF 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES 
POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N78W TO 14N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N100W 
1007 MB TO 9N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 78W-81W AND WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 119W-124W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N137W TO 26N140W. DOWNSTREAM 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 23N131W. IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
12N134W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N114W WITH RIDGE TO NORTHERN 
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR 
THE SURFACE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS 9-12 FT ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 180 NM 
SE SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW AT 15N100W. AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH SEAS 9-13 FT WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE CENTER SAT.

NW SWELL 8-11 FT NW OF A LINE 30N133W TO 27N140W. THE SWELL 
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE SWELLS PROPAGATE E...AND SUBSIDE TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT SUN.
                      
$$ 
DGS