000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH HAS PERSISTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THE 
PAST 24-36 HOURS...AND HAS BEGUN TO LIFT SLOWLY N TO NW WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED A BETTER 
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THIS LOW NEAR 13N99W...WITH 
THE PLUME OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNELING OUT OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC HAVING TURNED EASTERLY AND NOW BLOWING ACROSS THE 
NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS A LARGE 
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS 
LOW...WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM 
ELSEWHERE FROM THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N TO 
NW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE 
COAST OF MEXICO.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IT HAS 
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW 
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO FROM OAXACA TO 
MICHOACAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 15.5N95W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 13.5N99W 1008 MB TO 11N120W TO 10N130W...WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 77W AND 
88W. FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG WITHIN 210 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
HAVE SHIFTED EASTERLY AND ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM EAST TO 
WEST ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE 
THERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE SW 
ATTEMPTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR 26N124W... 
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS W OF 110W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N. NW SWELL IN NW PORTION OF AREA 
WITH SEAS TO 8-11 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N116.5W TO 27N117W TO 
20N128W TO 18N140W IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE FRI. 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY 
N OF 30N IN ADDITION TO NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW 
SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 FT NW OF LINE FROM 30N130W TO 26N140W 
FRI...THEN DIMINISH SAT.
                      
$$ 
STRIPLING