000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170247
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED S OF THE COAST OF MEXICO 
CENTERED NEAR 13N100W IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120-180 NM OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER... 
FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW DRIFTS N. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 14N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
13N100W 1007 MB TO 11N105W TO 11N131W. ITCZ FROM 11N131W TO 
13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N 
TO 18N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...AND ALSO 
BETWEEN 104W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

WHILE A GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR 26N125W... 
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS W OF 115W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N. NW SWELL IN NW PORTION OF AREA 
WITH SEAS TO 8-10 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N118W TO 21N140W IS 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT. FRESH TO 
STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 30N IN ADDITION 
TO NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 FT 
NW OF LINE FROM 30N130W TO 26N140W FRI...THEN DIMINISH SAT.
                      
$$ 
MUNDELL