000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU OCT 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED S OF THE COAST OF MEXICO 
CENTERED NEAR 12N100W IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120-180 NM OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...N 
OF 10N BETWEEN 97W-104W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS 
THE LOW DRIFTS N. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 14N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
12N100W 1008 MB TO 08N104W TO 11N116W TO 10N130W. ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 10N130W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION N OF 10N BETWEEN 91W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

WHILE A GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR 26N124W... 
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS W OF 115W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N. NW SWELL IN NW PORTION OF AREA 
WITH SEAS TO 8-10 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 22N140W IS 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT. FRESH TO 
STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 30N IN ADDITION 
TO NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 FT 
NW OF LINE FROM 30N132W TO 27N140W FRI...THEN DIMINISH SAT.
                                               
$$ 
MUNDELL