000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161534
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU OCT 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO 
BLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH N-NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT 
WITH SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW 
GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT FRI AFTERNOON.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED S OF THE COAST OF MEXICO 
NEAR 11N100W IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...N OF 10N BETWEEN 99W-104W. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW DRIFTS NW. THE STRONG NLY 
BLOWING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL SPIN 
UP TO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N78W TO 13N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N100W 
1008 MB TO 8N105W TO 10N130W. ITCZ FROM 10N130W TO 13N140W. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 10N 
BETWEEN 90W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N-11N 
BETWEEN 108W-109W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N123W TO 20N140W. DOWNSTREAM 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
27N122W TO 12N133W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N110W WITH RIDGE TO 
NW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR 
THE SURFACE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

SW WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS 9-11 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW 
DESCRIBED ABOVE ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 95W-99W. AS THE LOW 
INTENSIFIES WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH SEAS 9-14 FT 
FRI.

NW SWELL 8-11 FT NW OF A LINE 30N125W TO 24N140W. THE SWELL 
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE SWELLS PROPAGATE E...HOWEVER A FRESH ROUND 
OF LARGE SWELL TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 
28N W OF 135W.
                                               
$$ 
DGS