000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161004
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU OCT 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO 
BLOW ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH N-NE 
WINDS 30 TO 40 KT EXTENDING SW OF THE CHIVELAS PASS TO NEAR 
13N96.5W...AND SEAS TO 14 FT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL DECREASE 
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING THROUGH BY FRI MORNING AS AN AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE MOVES W ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS LIFTED NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR S PORTIONS 
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO... 
WHERE A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH. 
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT 
LOW PRES CENTERS WERE LOCATED NEAR 14N94W AND ALSO NEAR 
10.5N99.5W. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
DESCRIBED BELOW HAVE BLOSSOMED ABOUT BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH 
THERE. THE NORTHERNMOST OF THESE LOWS WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MERGE 
WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN LOW TONIGHT...AS IT DRIFTS NW. THIS 
MERGED LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH W OF THE GULF 
TO SHIFT THE WIND FLOW TO NE TO E ACROSS THE GULF AND DIMINISH 
WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS MERGED LOW DURING 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS N-NW.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N75W TO 13.5N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
14N94W 1008 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N99.5W 1008 MB TO 09.5N108W 
TO 12.5N119W TO 11.5N131W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ... 
CONTINUING ON BEYOND 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 84W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 
150 NM SE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 106W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES NEAR 32N127W... 
EXTENDS SE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS W OF 113W...PRODUCING LIGHT TO 
MODERATE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED 
WITH REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING INTO NW 
PORTION OF AREA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 
30N126W TO 24.5N140W...AND IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT 
THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT MAINLY N OF 30N IN ADDITION TO NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT 
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 FT NW OF LINE FROM 30N131W TO 
27N140W FRI.

$$ 
STRIPLING