000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160255
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU OCT 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO 
BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH N-NE WINDS IN EXCESS 
OF 40 KT AND SEAS TO 15 FT. THE CRUISE SHIP WESTERDAM CALL SIGN 
PINX REPORTED 45 KT WINDS AT 0000 UTC NEAR 15.7N 94.6W. MINIMAL 
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON... 
THEN DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRI MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE MOVES N INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
IS LOCATED S OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO. A PAIR OF LOWS ARE LOCATED 
NEAR 13N94W AND 11N99W...PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. ANIMATED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW NEAR 11N99W SLOWLY BECOMING 
BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE THE LOW NEAR 13N94W REMAINS DISORGANIZED. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME 
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS N-NW. THIS 
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
BY FRIDAY EVENING. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 14N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
13N94W 1008 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N99W 1008 MB TO 10N113W TO 
11N129W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N129W TO 12N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 08N 
TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 106W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES EXTENDS ACROSS 
NORTHERN WATERS W OF 115W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH 
REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING INTO NW PORTION 
OF AREA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N130W 
TO 26N140W TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE THU THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THU 
NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 
30N IN ADDITION TO NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO 
BUILD TO 10 FT NW OF LINE FROM 30N131W TO 27N140W FRI.

$$ 
MUNDELL