000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED OCT 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO 
BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH N-NE WINDS IN EXCESS 
OF 35 KT AND SEAS 10-15 FT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY 
BY FRI MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES N INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
IS LOCATED S OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO. A PAIR OF LOWS ARE LOCATED 
NEAR 12N94W AND 11N99W...PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. ANIMATED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW NEAR 11N99W BECOMING BETTER 
ORGANIZED WHILE THE LOW NEAR 12N94W HAS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS 
IT DRIFTS N-NW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH FRIDAY. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N94W 1008 
MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N99W 1009 MB TO 09N105W TO 13N124W TO 
12N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N 
TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND 104W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 
25N124W 1018 MB AND 29N141W 1019 MB...EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN 
WATERS W OF 115W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS 
OF A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT THAT BRUSHED PAST NW PART OVERNIGHT 
HAS SEAS TO 9 FT N OF 26N W OF 132W. SWELL WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT 
NW OF A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 22N140W THROUGH THU THEN SUBSIDE 
THU NIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PART 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 30N IN ADDITION TO NW SWELL BEHIND THE 
FRONT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 FT NW OF LINE FROM 30N131W 
TO 27N140W FRI.

$$ 
MUNDELL