000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED OCT 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO 
BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH NLY WINDS 30-40 KT AND 
SEAS 10-15 FT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGH THU EVENING...THEN DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THU 
NIGHT.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED S OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA 
NEAR 12N93W IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...N OF 8N BETWEEN 88W-103W. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW DRIFTS NW. THE 
STRONG NLY BLOWING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY CONTRIBUTE 
ADDITIONAL SPIN UP TO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THROUGH THU. THIS 
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N93W 1008 MB TO 
10N110W TO 14N125W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 08N BETWEEN 88W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM FROM 110W-122W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 27N140W. DOWNSTREAM 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N123W TO A SMALL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 24N128W AND CONTINUES TO 15N135W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 
15N W OF 125W. SW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO N AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO 
THE SW U.S.. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCE CONVECTION 
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 26N140W. NW SWELL 
TO 8 FT IS NW OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THU 
HOWEVER THE SWELL WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT NW OF A LINE 32N121W TO 
24N140W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW 
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THU NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG 
SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 29N W OF 135W. 

$$ 
DGS