000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150927
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED OCT 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE 0322 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION  
ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 30-35 KT WINDS THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS FAR SOUTH AS 14N. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SE MEXICO. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS MORNING WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 
REACHING 40 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 14-15 FT DURING 
PEAK WINDS THIS MORNING. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST THROUGH THU EVENING...AIDED BY A LOW PRES SYSTEM 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION LATER THIS 
WEEK ROUGHLY NEAR 13N95W. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED S OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA 
NEAR 11N92W IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...PARTICULARLY FROM 09N TO 
12N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS 
THE LOW DRIFTS NW. THE GAP WIND EVENT THROUGH THU IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC MAY CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL SPIN UP VORTICITY TO THE 
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE AREA TODAY AND THU. THIS SYSTEM HAS A 
MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 
48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N92W 1008 
MB TO 10N105W TO 14N124W TO 13N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 
98W...AND WITHIN 90 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 12N98W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 98W AND 102W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
CAN BE FOUND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 121W...AND FROM 
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN W SWELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM ANA 
IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE STILL NOTED IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM 
12N TO 19N W OF 138W. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATE TODAY AS 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER WEST. 

A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF 20N WITH A 1015 MB HIGH 
PRES LOCATED NEAR 26N122W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED 
INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 30N129W TO 
26N140W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE FORECAST 
WATERS IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. MODERATE NLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE 
FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT IN NW SWELL NW OF LINE FROM 
30N125W TO 25N140W BY TONIGHT...AND NW OF LINE FROM 30N116W TO 
20N130W TO 18N140W BY THU NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST 
TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION THU NIGHT. 
EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 
29N W OF 135W. 
    
N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE GALE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL COMBINE WITH SW SWELL GENERATED BY ENHANCED SW  
MONSOON FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 
13N95W AND LINGERING RESIDUAL NW SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN 
TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF MIXED SWELL THU EXTENDING FROM 05N TO 
15N BETWEEN 94W AND 104W...WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. 

$$ 
GR