000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED OCT 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH S MEXICO THIS EVENING IS INDUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK 
WED MORNING WITH MAXIMUM WINDS REACHING 40 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST 
TO BUILD TO 15-16 FT DURING PEAK WINDS WED MORNING. MINIMAL GALE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...AIDED 
BY A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WED AND THU ROUGHLY NEAR 13N95W. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE S OF THE GUATEMALA COAST CENTERED 
NEAR 11N93W IS EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW DRIFTS NW. DISORGANIZED 
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. THE GAP 
WIND EVENT TONIGHT THROUGH THU IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY 
CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL SPIN UP VORTICITY TO THE PERSISTENT LOW 
PRESSURE AREA WED AND THU. THE AREA HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N93W 
1009 MB TO 09N108W TO 16N121W TO 13N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 91W AND 100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

TROPICAL STORM ANA IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS W OF THE FORECAST 
AREA WITH 8-9 FT W SWELL 12N TO 19N W OF 138W. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE 
BELOW 8 FT WED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER WEST. 

A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES WATERS N OF 20N WITH A 1015 MB HIGH PRES 
LOCATED NEAR 25N124W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING 
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN 
BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF 130W WILL REACH FROM 30N127W 
TO 28N140W LATE TONIGHT AND FROM 30N126W TO 26N140W WED MORNING. 
MODERATE NLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
10-11 FT IN NW SWELL IN NW PORTION OF AREA...N OF 26N W OF 125W.
    
N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE GALE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL COMBINE WITH SW SWELL GENERATED BY ENHANCED SW  
MONSOON FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 
13N95W AND LINGERING RESIDUAL NW SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN 
TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF MIXED SWELL THU EXTENDING FROM 07N TO 
15N BETWEEN 90W AND 104W...WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. 

$$ 
MUNDELL