000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE OCT 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING AND INDUCE GALE FORCE 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS 
EXPECTED TO PEAK WED MORNING WITH MAXIMUM WINDS REACHING 40 KT. 
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10-16 FT DURING PEAK WINDS WED. 
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU 
AFTERNOON...AIDED BY A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF 
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 12N94W. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE S OF THE GUATEMALA COAST CENTERED 
NEAR 11N92W IS EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW DRIFTS NW. DISORGANIZED 
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. THE GAP 
WIND EVENT TONIGHT THROUGH THU IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY 
CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL SPIN UP VORTICITY TO THE PERSISTENT LOW 
PRES WED AND THU. THIS LOW PRES AREA HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THU EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N92W 
1008 MB TO 10N106W TO 17N122W TO 13N134W TO 14N138W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 87W 
AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 
128W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

TROPICAL STORM ANA IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS W OF THE FORECAST 
AREA WITH 8-9 FT W SWELL 11N TO 20N W OF 137W. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE 
BELOW 8 FT WED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER WEST. 

A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF 20N WITH A 1016 MB HIGH 
PRES LOCATED NEAR 25N121W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN 
BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF 130W WILL REACH FROM 30N127W 
TO 28N140W LATE TONIGHT AND FROM 30N126W TO 26N140W WED MORNING. 
MODERATE NLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
10-11 FT IN NW SWELL IN NW PORTION OF AREA...N OF 26N W OF 125W.
    
N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE GALE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL COMBINE WITH SW SWELL GENERATED BY ENHANCED SW  
MONSOON FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 
12N94W AND LINGERING RESIDUAL NW SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN 
WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF MIXED SWELL THU EXTENDING FROM 06N 
TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 104W...WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. 

$$ 
MUNDELL