000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE OCT 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 
SW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY THIS 
EVENING. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT 
TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM WINDS REACHING 40 KT. A GALE 
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...BEGINNING AT 15/0000 UTC. SEAS ARE 
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10-16 FT DURING THE PEAK WINDS TONIGHT INTO 
WED MORNING. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 
16/0600 UTC BUT MAY PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER AS A LOW PRES 
DEVELOPS S OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION.      
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES  
NEAR 12N92W TO 10N110W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 16N122W TO 
13N137W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 86W-96W ALSO N OF 14N BETWEEN 93W-96W AND 
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 123W-132W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N92W OR A COUPLE HUNDRED 
MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND SE MEXICO. CLOUDINESS 
AND SHOWERS ARE LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM SE QUADRANT 
OF LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY W-NW OR NW. THE GAP 
WIND EVENT FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY 
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THIS PERSISTENT LOW PRES TO FINALLY DEEPEN 
SOME BY THU. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS 
LOW PRES AREA A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS. 

TROPICAL STORM ANA IS JUST W OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 8 FT NW 
SWELL FROM 9N-21N W OF 137W WILL SUBSIDE BY WED. 

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS MEANDERING NEAR 16N122W. CONVECTION IS 
MINIMAL AND MAINLY TO THE N OF THE CENTER.

A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS WITH A 1016 MB HIGH PRES 
LOCATED NEAR 25N122W. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION 
FROM THE NW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA TODAY REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N127W TO 
28N140W TONIGHT...AND FROM 30N126W TO 26N140W BY WED MORNING. 
NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS 
TO AROUND 11 FT IN NW SWELL.
    
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST WATERS W OF 105W WHILE MAINLY CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG 
PERIOD SW SWELL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS E 
OF 105W. SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS 
THE FORECAST REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS W OF 110W BY TONIGHT. 

$$ 
DGS