000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140919 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE OCT 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NLY WINDS AT 20-30 KT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT. THEN...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM WINDS REACHING 40 KT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...BEGINNING AT 15/0000 UTC. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10-16 FT DURING THE PEAK WINDS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 16/0600 UTC BUT MAY PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER AS A LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N91W TO 13N110W TO A SECOND 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 16N121W TO 14N130W TO 14N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF TROUGH TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 87W AND 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 15N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W...FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W...FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 130W AND 137W AND FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 138W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS NEAR 11N91W OR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND SE MEXICO. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY W-NW OR NW. THE GAP WIND EVENT FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THIS PERSISTENT LOW PRES TO FINALLY DEEPEN SOME BY THU. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS JUST W OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH E-SE WINDS AT 20 KT CONTINUING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 9- 16N W OF 138W. THE ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE AFFECTING THE AREA FROM 06N TO 21N W OF 136W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS MEANDERING NEAR 16N121W. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AND MAINLY TO THE N OF THE CENTER. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN ROUGHLY THIS SAME AREA FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS WITH A 1016 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 25N122W. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N127W TO 28N140W TONIGHT...AND FROM 30N126W TO 26N140W BY WED MORNING. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT IN NW SWELL. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 105W WHILE MAINLY CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 105W. SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS W OF 110W BY TONIGHT. $$ GR