000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140235 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE OCT 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AROUND SUNRISE ON TUE...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT DURING TUE MORNING BECOMING GALE FORCE OF 30-40 KT BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO A MAX OF 17 FT NEAR 14N95W ON TUE NIGHT. THE GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE WED AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PULSE TO 30 KT AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND TO ABOUT 20 KT LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE N WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. ...TROPICAL LOWS... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 08-13N BETWEEN 87-97W. A MEAN CENTER IS ANALYZED FOR SIMPLICITY NEAR 13N93W AND ESTIMATED AT 1009 MB AND IS DRIFTING NW. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE CENTER. THE CIRCULATION IS WEAK WITH CYCLONIC 5-10 KT WINDS NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NW WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALSO SHIFTING NW ON TUE AND WED WITH THE LOW REACHING NEAR 12N94W THU NIGHT. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST FROM TO EXTEND FROM 13N90W TO 12N94W TO 09N103W ON THU NIGHT WITH SW WINDS WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT...EXCEPT TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE EMBEDDED LOW. THE WED NIGHT NE DRAINAGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL ALSO PASS SW ACROSS THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW ON THU. THE COMBINATION OF THESE EVENTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THIS PERSISTENT LOW TO DEEPEN SOME AS EARLY AS LATE THU NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MEANDERING NEAR 17N120W AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1009 MB. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER NE SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 19N120W TO 10N114W. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN ROUGHLY THIS SAME AREA FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. TROPICAL STORM ANA HAS FORMED W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH E-SE WINDS AT 20 KT CONTINUING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 13- 17N W OF 137W. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF MIXED NW...N AND S SWELL DESCRIBED IN DETAIL BELOW. THE ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ON TUE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N76W TO ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 11N86W...THEN CONTINUES NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED LOW PRES NEAR AT 13N93W...CONTINUING WNW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 17N120W...THEN TURNS SW TO 13N130W THEN W TO BEYOND 14N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N79W TO 09N87W TO 09N95W... WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N99W TO 09N108W... AND WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N125W TO 12N140W. ...DISCUSSION... LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SE AND SW SWELL ...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT OBSERVED W OF A LINE FROM 30N115W TO 21N111W TO 00N131W TO 07N140W. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS ON TUE. ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE REACHING THE FAR NW PORTION ON THE DISCUSSION AREA ON TUE AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8- 11 FT AGAIN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 32N127W TO 27N140W LATE WED...AND NW OF A LINE FROM 32N116W TO 21N140W LATE THU. THESE ENHANCED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE THU NIGHT...AND SPREAD SE ALONG THE ENTIRE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI. BY THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW DISCUSSION WATERS PRECEDED BY 20- 25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT. $$ NELSON