000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131618 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON OCT 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS THIS MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC TO 100W. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE. NLY WINDS AT 20-30 KT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TUE NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM WINDS REACHING 40 KT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...BEGINNING AT 15/0000Z. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10 TO 16 FT DURING THE PEAK WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW GALE FORCE AND 12 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PULSE TO 30 KT AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND TO 25 KT LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE N WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11.5N92.5W TO 14N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15.5N120W TO 12N128W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 08.5N TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 84W AND 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 134W. ...DISCUSSION... WEAKENING HIGH PRES PREVAILS THIS MORNING ACROSS NW PORTIONS... CENTERED ON A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N138W. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TUE MORNING REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N127W TO 26N40W BY WED MORNING. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 20N. SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS MORNING OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST N OF 03N. AS THE GALE FORCE WINDS BEGIN TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE NIGHT...AND SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW INCREASES TO 20 KT ACROSS THIS REGION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...A CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE VICINITY OF 13N93W BY LATE THU INTO FRI. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES CENTER OF 1009 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 15N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM SE QUADRANT...AND FROM 150 TO 450 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY W-NW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH ALONG 125W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A THIRD LOW PRES IS JUST W OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 12N141W WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES OF 1007 MB. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 134W ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE N IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 11N TO 16N W OF 139W WITH SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. THIS TROPICAL LOW HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM TODAY OR TUE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NW TOWARDS THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 120W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS W OF 110W BELOW 8 FT BY TUE NIGHT. $$ STRIPLING