000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122154 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N92W AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY FLARING WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE CENTER ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE CIRCULATION IS WEAK WITH CYCLONIC 5-10 KT WINDS NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER IN ROUGHLY THIS SAME POSITION THROUGH MON...THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ON TUE AND LOSE IDENTITY BY WED. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N115W AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WELL N OF THE CENTER WITHIN 150 NM OF 18N115W AND S OF THE CENTER WITHIN 150 NM OF 10N114W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH TO NEAR 14N120W ON MON...THEN LOSE IDENTITY BY TUE. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N138W...AND IS MOVING W-NW AT 14 KT. NE-E WINDS AT 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST WITHIN 270 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER...WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF MIXED N AND S SWELL DESCRIBED IN DETAIL BELOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE W OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUING ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 11-20N BETWEEN 135- 140W THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT AS THIS TROPICAL LOW HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ALONG 10N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N75.5W TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N86W THROUGH THE EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 11N92W TO 13N100W...THEN TURNS W THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 14N115W...THEN TURNS SW TO 11N130W THEN TURNS SLIGHTLY NW TO BEYOND 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 03-08N TO THE E OF 79W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF 09N86W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF 14N96W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS AT 17N135W...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND NEAR THE EMBEDDED LOW PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR 11N138W...ALL WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 17.5N140W TO 13N118W TO 05N129W TO 07N140W TO 17.5N140W. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS CLUSTERS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO TO THE S OF 24N. THESE CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD W OVER THE ADJACENT COAST WATERS EARLY TONIGHT. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MON MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE WITH THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT ON TUE MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY LATE TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT NEAR 15N95W...AND FURTHER BUILDING TO 14 FT NEAR 13.5N95.5W EARLY WED MORNING. THE GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY WED AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PULSE TO 30 KT AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND TO 25 KT LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE N WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15- 20 KT WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 12N94W TO 07N110W LATE WED...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NE TO WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 13N91W TO 10N103W LATE THU. THIS MONSOONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY LATE FRI. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SE AND SW SWELL ...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT OBSERVED W OF A LINE FROM 30N118W TO 20N127W TO 13N128W TO 08N140W...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 11-12 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 122- 129W. THE NW SWELL IS CURRENTLY PROPAGATING SE THROUGH THE COASTAL PACIFIC WATERS ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...AND WILL SPREAD SE ALONG THE ENTIRE BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE MON NIGHT...AND ALSO REACH AS FAR SE AS 20N110W ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON TUE. ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE REACHING THE FAR NW PORTION ON THE DISCUSSION AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 11 FT AGAIN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 32N128 TO 28N140W LATE WED...AND FROM 32N119W TO 21N140W LATE THU. THESE ENHANCED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE THU NIGHT. BY THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW DISCUSSION WATERS PRECEDED BY 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SEAS OF 8-12 FT. $$ NELSON