000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121610 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A LARGE POOL OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS CONVERGED ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 125W AND 140W DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...WITH AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 10N138.5W. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION DESCRIBED BELOW PERSISTS THIS MORNING...ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A ZONE OF FRESH ENE WINDS 20-25 KT PREVAILS TO THE N OF THIS LOW FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 134W...WHERE NW SWELL IS COMBINING TO PRODUCE SEAS 9-11 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W-NW WITH THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED OVERNIGHT ALONG 114W-115W WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW PRES CENTER HAS BECOME ABSORBED IN A N-NW TO S-SE ALIGNED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE PAST 24-36 HOURS...AND THE WAVE HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY. DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 14N114.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ON THE NW AND SE ENDS OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY WWD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE AN UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN INTO THE TROPICS ALONG ABOUT 125W AND PULLS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND WEATHER NWD AND SHEARS IT OUT TO THE NE WED NIGHT AND THU. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11.5N90.5W TO 10N92.5W TO 11N97W TO 12N108W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N114.5W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N138.5W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 93.5W AND 97W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 112W AND 124W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 07.5N TO 15.5N W OF 125W. ...DISCUSSION... A HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 38N133W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE W OF 130W DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS LEADING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS TO SHIFT WWD AND W OF 140W MON NIGHT AND TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA TUE MORNING REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N127W TO 27N140W BY WED MORNING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT IN NW SWELL. A 1009 MB LOW PRES CONTINUES TO MEANDER ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11.5N90.5W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SOUTH OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SOUTH OF THE LOW PRES...EXPECT SOUTHERLY MONSOON FLOW TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 6-8 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 05-10N BETWEEN 90-110W BY TUE NIGHT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODERATE NLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THIS GULF THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRIGGERED A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION JUST S OF THE GULF ALONG 14N. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF ON TUE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AROUND 15/0000Z. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 14 FT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TODAY...AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS W OF 120W BY MON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MON WITH SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS W OF 110W BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TUE. $$ STRIPLING