000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...TROPICAL WAVES...
                                    
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N115W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 13N114W. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE 
WAVE AXIS...PARTICULARLY FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 114W AND 117W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THE WAVE 
SHOWS UP WELL AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE IN THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR  
12N91W TO 10N102W TO A SECOND 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N114W TO 
10N125W TO A THIRD 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N137W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF A 
LINE FROM 11N128W TO 12.5N133W TO 11N139W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN 
ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS BAND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 125W AND 127W...AND FROM 07N TO 
09N BETWEEN 133W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N 
WATERS TO NEAR 22N110W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS 
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE W OF 130W 
DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A DEVELOPING 
LOW PRES NEAR 10N137W. A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
HAS DEVELOPED TO THE N OF THE LOW PRES WHILE CONVECTION IS ON 
INCREASE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES IN TO THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC REGION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 20-
25 KT N OF LOW CENTER LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 
11 FT. 

A 1010 MB LOW PRES CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR 12N91W. A SWIRL OF 
LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS FORECAST 
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SOUTH OF 
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SOUTH OF THE LOW PRES...EXPECT SOUTHERLY 
MONSOON FLOW TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 6-8 FT ACROSS THE 
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 05-10N BETWEEN 90-110W BY TUE NIGHT. 
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW 
ACROSS THIS GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. A COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW 
GULF ON TUE. WINDS OF 25-30 KT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
AROUND 15/0000Z. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST 
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 14 
FT. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE 
FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA LATE TODAY...AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS W OF 
120W BY MON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO 
EAST LATE MON WITH SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS W OF 110W BELOW 
8 FT BY LATE TUE. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA TUE MORNING REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N127W 
TO 27N140W BY WED MORNING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. NLY WINDS 
OF 15-20 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 
11 FT IN NW SWELL.

$$ 
GR