000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120231 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES... A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11.5N92W AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB WITH ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION FLARING OCCASIONALLY WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. CYCLONIC 10-15 KT WINDS CONTINUE WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE LOW AT 12.5N92W WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER IN ROUGHLY THE SAME POSITION THROUGH MON...THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ON TUE AND WED REACHING NEAR 13N95W ON THU. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE...WITH THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW SURGING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ON TUE NIGHT AND FUNNELING SW OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE LOW TO DEEPEN. ALSO EXPECT THE SOUTHERLY MONSOON FLOW TO INCREASE TO 15- 20 KT/SEAS 6-8 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 03-12N BETWEEN 87-97W TO INCLUDE THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THEN A POSSIBILITY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 12N115W TO 18.5N115W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN BEFORE TURNING W ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 11N86W...THEN CONTINUES W THROUGH EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 11.5N92W...THEN DIPS SW TO 09N100W THEN NW TO THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 13N116WW...THEN TURN W-SW TO BEYOND 11N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N94W TO 12N98W...AND FROM 07-13N BETWEEN 111-130W AND FROM 05-18N BETWEEN 130-140W. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING NEAR 10N136W AND GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 10N140W EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN 3-5 DAYS BUT MAINLY TO THE W OF 140W. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS CLUSTERS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 88-92W AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 97-106W. THESE CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD W OVER THE ADJACENT COAST WATERS TONIGHT. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE WITH THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW Y TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT/SEAS 8-12 FT LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THU MORNING. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH SW SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT OBSERVED W OF A LINE FROM 32N120W TO 17N130W TO 10N140W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE SUN...AND SPREAD AS FAR SE AS 20N110W LATE MON NIGHT. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MON. ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE REACHING THE FAR NW PORTION ON THE DISCUSSION AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 11 FT AGAIN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 32N121W TO 25N140W ON WED NIGHT. THESE ENHANCED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THU NIGHT. BY THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FAR NW DISCUSSION WATERS PRECEDED BY 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. $$ NELSON