000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111607 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT OCT 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BECOME ABSORBED IN AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION PERSISTING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 13N100W...ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE WAVE HAVE SHIFTED INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. A 1008 MB LOW HAS LINGERED NEAR 12N91W FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW. THIS LOW AND A SECOND LINGERING 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N96.5W ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND COULD GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SOUTH OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED ALONG 111W-112W THIS MORNING AND HAS BECOME INVOLVED WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N109W TO 11N114W. A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THIS WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11.5N112.5W....WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LOW. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WWD THROUGH WED BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND SHEARS THE SYSTEM APART. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N76W TO 10N84W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N91W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N96.5W TO 08.5N102W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11.5N112.5W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N134W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N AND 150 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 101W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N139W EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 20N115W THIS MORNING. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM... MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS SW PORTIONS PER OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASSES...FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 125W. THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING OCCURRING N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INITIATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED ABOVE W OF 118W...UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS BELOW AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE. DEEP LAYERED EASTERLY WINDS HERE WILL TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE AND WEATHER WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOST OF IT MOVING W OF 140W BY MON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE ON TUE. THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT AND AID IN THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE EXPECTED TWO MERGED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DESCRIBED ABOVE. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS REACHED THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY...AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS W OF 120W BY MON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MON WITH SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS W OF 110W BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA TUE MORNING REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N125W TO 26N40W BY WED MORNING. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT IN NW SWELL. $$ STRIPLING