000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110931 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT OCT 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N111W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 11N112W USING NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N91W TO 08N103W TO A SECOND 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N112W TO 10N121W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N121W TO 11N131W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 116W AND 126W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 129W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1009 MB LOW PRES CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR 11N91W...WHILE SOME CYCLONIC TURNING COULD ALSO BE SEEN FARTHER NE ACROSS MUCH OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND MAINTAIN A WET AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND FAR SE MEXICO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TSTMS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW DRIFTS WESTWARD. HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 20N116W. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM... MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS MAINLY FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 130W. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 16N128W TO 09N131W BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 131W AND 135W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE NEAR 140W BY MON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE ON TUE. THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED DEEPENS TO THE SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS REACHED THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE SUN...AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS W OF 120W BY MON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MON WITH SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS W OF 110W BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA TUE MORNING REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N125W TO 26N40W BY WED MORNING. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT IN NW SWELL. $$ GR