000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102148 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES... A BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N90W AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING NEAR THE CENTER AND WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...BUT DOES NOT ORGANIZE INTO BANDS. CYCLONIC 10-15 KT WINDS CONTINUE WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS OF 4- 6 FT. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD REACHING NEAR 11N91.5W ON SAT WITH THE CYCLONIC WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO THEN DRIFT SLOWLY W REACH NEAR 11N92W ON SUN WITH THE RADIUS OF 25-20 KT WINDS EXPANDING OUTWARD TO ABOUT 180 NM FROM THE CENTER WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6- 8 FT IN MIXED WIND WAVE AND LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL MAINLY OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE ON SUN NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE...AS THE LOW DRIFTS W TO NEAR 12N92W ON MON...NEAR 12N93W ON TUE AND NEAR 12N94W ON WED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IS ESTIMATED TO THE N OF 13N ALONG 108W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND IS THE REASON THE WAVE HAS NOT BEEN DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N86W THROUGH AN EMBEDDED AND PERSISTENT 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N90W. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN CONTINUES NW TO 15N103W...THEN TURNS ABRUPTLY SW TO 11N117W...THEN W TO 12N124W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES NW TO 12N130W...THEN TURNS W-SW TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N81W TO 14N98W...AND ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 10N110W TO 10N123W TO 06N138W...AND ALSO N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N123W TO 14N128W TO 12N133W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED DEEPENS TO THE SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE SUN...AND SPREAD AS FAR SE AS 20N110W LATE MON NIGHT. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MON. ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE REACHING THE FAR NW PORTION ON THE DISCUSSION AREA ON TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 11 FT AGAIN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 32N122W TO 25N140W ON WED NIGHT. THESE ENHANCED SEAS MAY REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THU NIGHT. $$ NELSON