000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                       

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                    
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 106W S OF 17N. THIS WAVE 
HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF STABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERIC 
CONDITIONS...AND THUS LIMITED CLOUD COVER OR CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVE W AT AROUND 10 KT AND IS 
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N76W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 
11N90.5W TO 11N127.5W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ... 
CONTINUING ON TO 08.5N137W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED N OF 06N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA 
AND COSTA RICA FROM 81.5W TO 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S AND 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
88W AND 98W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND 
127W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 
NM S AND 180 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 125W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN 
TROPICAL PACIFIC...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 80W AND 97W. A 1007 MB LOW WAS 
ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THERE NEAR 11.5N90.5W...WHILE 
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING COULD ALSO BE SEEN FARTHER NE 
ACROSS MUCH OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS ELONGATED AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS AND MAINTAIN A WET AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS 
MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND FAR SE MEXICO...AND WILL LEAD TO 
ISOLATED AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AND COULD 
INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEXT WEEK. 
 
JUST TO THE NW OF THIS FEATURE...NLY WINDS OF 20 KT WERE 
DETECTED OVERNIGHT PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS 
AFTERNOON. THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NEXT WEEK WITH A 
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP TO THE SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. IN ADDITION...A 
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY 
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATE ON TUE. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH A LEADING PERIOD OF 19-20 SECONDS IS 
EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BEGIN TO RAISE COMBINED SEAS TO 8-12 
FT BY SAT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST 
REGION REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA 
ON SUN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE ON MON WITH SEAS 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS W OF 110W BELOW 8 FT BY TUE. 

$$
STRIPLING