000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                    
   
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W N OF 12N. SOME INVERTED-V LOW 
LEVEL SIGNATURE IS STILL NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 
THE WAVE USING NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE WITHIN AROUND 120 NM E OF THE WAVE 
AXIS N OF 16N. THERE IS ALSO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR 
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO LOSE 
IDENTITY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
11N90W TO 12N95W TO 11N118W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 11N118W TO 
09N130W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 110W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
05N TO 11N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MEANDER ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N90W WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRES OF 1007 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
N QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS 
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE IT DRIFTS W-NW. THE 
LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW 
PRES A MEDIUM CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
THROUGH 5 DAYS. 
 
NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT GAP WINDS OF 20 KT DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NEXT 
WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO THE SE OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT MOVING 
ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO 
BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE ON TUE. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 19-20 SECONDS 
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
FRI EVENING IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THESE SEAS 
WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION REACHING THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON SUN. SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE ON MON WITH SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
WATERS W OF 110W BELOW 8 FT BY TUE. 

$$
GR