000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100235
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.                       

...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES...                                    
 
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 10N90W AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THERE HAS NOT 
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THIS LOW WITHIN SEVERAL 
HOURS. CYCLONIC 10-15 KT WINDS CONTINUE WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF 
THE CENTER WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE NW REACHING NEAR 11N88W ON FRI EVENING WITH THE CYCLONIC 
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. THE 
LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 11N90W LATE SAT WITH WINDS 
CONTINUING AT 15-20 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS OF 
6-8 FT IN MIXED WIND WAVE AND LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SWELL. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR  
STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
POSSIBLE...AS THE LOW DRIFTS W TO NEAR 12N91W ON SUN...NEAR 
11N92W ON MON AND TUE.   
   
A TROPICAL WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IS ESTIMATED TO THE 
N OF 11N ALONG 103W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
FLARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF   
COLOMBIA AT 09N76W CROSSING NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA 12N86W...THEN TURNS W THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER AT 10N90W. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN CONTINUES W 
TO 12N113W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN 
ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES W-NW TO 13N123W THEN SW TO BEYOND 08N140W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N80W TO 09N97W TO 11N115W TO 
05N136W...AND ALSO FROM 10-14N BETWEEN 95-98W AND WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N123W TO 10N132W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW  
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 
KT LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 20-25 
KT NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO 
THE SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR NW PORTION OF  
THE DISCUSSION AREA FRI EVENING IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 
8-11 FT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE SUN...AND 
SPREAD AS FAR SE AS 20N110W ON MON NIGHT. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED 
TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE ON MON WITH SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS W 
OF 110W BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TUE. 

$$
NELSON