000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU OCT 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.                       

...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES...                                    
 
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N88W AND 
IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. DIRECTLY RELATED CONVECTION IS MINIMAL 
AT THE MOMENT. CYCLONIC 10-15 KT WINDS CONTINUE WITHIN ABOUT 120 
NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE NW REACHING NEAR 12N88W ON FRI WITH THE 
CYCLONIC WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
CENTER. SEAS OF 7-8 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE SE 
AND WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLES...BUT PRIMARILY DUE TO 
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO 
REACH NEAR 11.5N90W LATE SAT WITH WINDS CONTINUING AT 15-20 KT 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN S SWELL. 
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR  
STRENGTHENING ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION POSSIBLE...AS THE LOW DRIFTS W TO NEAR 11N91W ON 
SUN...NEAR 11N92W ON MON AND TUE.   
   
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 11N ALONG 101W AND IS BECOMING 
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO 
FLARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF  
COLOMBIA AT 08N78W...DISSECTING WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO 
THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 11N85W...THEN TURNS W THROUGH AN 
EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 12N88W. THE MONSOON 
TROUGH THEN CONTINUES W ALONG 11N TO 122W WHERE SCATTEROMETER 
WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES W TO 
10N127W THEN SW TO BEYOND TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 05N78W TO 11N95W TO 08N126W TO 06N140W...AND ALSO 
N OF 11N BETWEEN 92-97W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 15N138W. ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 12N120W TO 11N132W.   

...DISCUSSION...                                                

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW 
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 
KT LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH EARLY 
NEXT WEEK.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA FRI EVENING IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 
8-11 FT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE SUN...AND 
SPREAD AS FAR SE AS 20N110W ON MON NIGHT. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED 
TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE ON WITH SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS W OF 
110W BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TUE. 

$$
NELSON