000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091512
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU OCT 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.                       

...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES...                                    
 
A LOW PRES CENTER IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE 
COAST OF COSTA RICA CLOSE TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO NEAR 11N86W 
WITH ESTIMATED MSLP OF 1008 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. FURTHER W ALONG THE COASTS 
OF GUATEMALA AND S MEXICO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS PERSIST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW 
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE NORMAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW IN THAT AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS GENERAL 
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING THE LOW PRES DRIFTING SLOWLY TO 
THE W OR WNW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... 
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE...AS THE LOW DRIFTS W TO 
NEAR 11N90W ON SAT.
   
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 21N96W W OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO 09N98W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
CONTINUES TO FLARE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 
95W-100W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N83W TO 1008 MB LOW AT 11N86W 
TO 08N98W TO 10N120W TO 08N132W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N132W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. WIDELY  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 112W AND 125W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 135W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N140W TO 20N115W IS 
MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS 
THE WATERS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N W OF 120W. A PERSISTENT SURFACE 
TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 16N124W TO 11N125W....MOVING W AT 15 TO 
20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SHIP C6VG7 MOVING E INDICATED 25 KT GAP 
WIND FLOW OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS COMES IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING 
THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT 
A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PULSE OF GAP FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND 
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE FRI IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 
8-10 FT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING 
30N132W SAT AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA 
LATE SUN NIGHT...AND SPREAD SE INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS AS FAR 
SE AS 20N115W BY LATE MON. 

$$
FORMOSA