000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED OCT 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.                       

...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES...                                    
 
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 10N87W 
AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1009 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND 
WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE SURROUNDED BY 10-15 KT 
WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE NW REACHING NEAR 11N88W ON THU WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS. THE LOW SHOULD REACH NEAR 11N90W ON 
FRI WITH WINDS INCREASING TO TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE 
CENTER. SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 6-8 FT WITHIN 240 NM SE OF 
THE CENTER IN MIXING WIND WAVE AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY 
SWELL. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
...WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE...AS THE LOW DRIFTS 
W TO NEAR 12N90W ON SAT...NEAR 12N91W ON SUN AND NEAR 12N93W ON 
MON.  
   
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 06N95W TO ACROSS WESTERN 
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
CONTINUES TO FLARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AT 13N140W WITH  
A TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO NEAR 16.5N135W. THE NE TRADES ARE 
ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF THE LOW 
AND TROUGH...WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA AT 14N142W WITH 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM E OF 
TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PERSIST TONIGHT WITH THE 
LOW LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS SHIFTING W OF THE 
AREA EARLY THU.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ALONG 10N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN  
FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA INTO 
AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 10N87W. THE MONSOON 
TROUGH CONTINUES W-SW THROUGH THE BASE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 
09N94W...THEN TURNS SW TO 08N100W...THEN NW TO 10N110W...THEN 
CONTINUES W ALONG 11N TO 122W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE 
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES SW TO 09N131W...THEN 
TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 13N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER 
AND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N79W TO 10N87W TO 07N99W TO 09N111W 
TO 06N124W.  

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ 
FROM 12N123W TO 17N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER 
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS W OVER THE DAY OR SO.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED SW OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N101W TO 20N107W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON IS CENTERED AT 
28N114W AND CONTINUES DRIFTING NW. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED 
TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 5 FT JUST W OF THE 
CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 33N118W WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW STILL ADVECTING CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE NE ACROSS THE SW CONUS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW 
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 
KT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 
FT. THE NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS LIKELY TO INCREASE 
TO 20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH THE 
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SE OF 
TEHUANTEPEC STRENGTHENS. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE FRI IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS 
OF 8-11 FT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA 
REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE 
SUN NIGHT...AND SPREADING SE INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS AS FAR SE 
AS 20N115W BY LATE MON. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO 
SUBSIDE ON MON NIGHT WITH SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS W OF 
112W BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TUE. 

$$
NELSON