000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081520 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED OCT 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 07N ALONG 91W MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY FROM 11N TO 13N. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N100W TO 10N115W TO 08N125W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N125W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 13N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND 109W...AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 107W AND 118W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1006 MB AREA OF LOW PRES...THE REMNANT LOW OF SIMON...IS CENTERED NEAR 28N115W JUST N OF PUNTA EUGENIA OVER THE BAY OF SEBASTIAN VISCAINO. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL DEFINED WITH AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS LOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. DOPPLER RADAR ALREADY SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS AFFECTING PARTS OF NW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND THE N PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE REMNANT LOW OF SIMON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANT LOW OF SIMON AND HIGHER PRES OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. SEAS ARE LIKELY BELOW 8 FT...AND THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE REMNANT LOW OF SIMON SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THIS GULF. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 13N138W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. THIS LOW HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. AN AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IS NOTED TO THE N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N TO 17N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW WILL MOVE JUST W OF AREA LATER TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES THAT IS MOVING INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OR SW OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATE THIS WEEK OR DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY W- NW OR NW. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE AREA OF LOW PRES IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER BY FRI MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BRIEFLY. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS WELL. THE OVERNIGHT PULSES ARE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION ENHANCING LOCAL DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT FLOW. $$ GR